Uncovering long term relationships between oil prices and the economy: A time-varying cointegration analysis

Establishing the relation between oil price movements and macroeconomic performance is of great importance for firms and policymakers, alike. Prior studies established this relation using the assumption that the long-run relation is intertemporally constant. However, there is much recent evidence demonstrating that this assumption may not hold in practice. To address this issue and go beyond the restrictive time-invariant environment, we employ the use of the time-varying cointegration framework of Bierens and Martins (2010). We present evidence of the long-run oil-economy relation evolving over the 1974–2015 period, with major events such as the Gulf War and the financialisation of commodity markets proving to be driving forces across the U.S., European and G7 economies considered

The determinants of IPO withdrawal – Evidence from Europe

Why do companies not follow through with an IPO after filing for one? This question is investigated by examining common stock IPOs for the largest countries in Europe. We cover 80% of the Western European IPO market over the 2001–2015 period. We establish that the IPO phenomenon of withdrawal is a common feature of equity markets and identify key characteristics that influence the probability of withdrawal. Findings indicate that venture capital or private equity involvement, the presence of negative news, CEO duality, or the intent to retire debt increase the probability of IPO withdrawal. On the other hand, higher levels of corporate governance or trading volume decrease the pssrobability of IPO withdrawal. We argue that imminent agency conflicts and the lack of appropriate control mechanisms can force a company to withdraw from the IPO

Females do not have more injury road accidents on Friday the 13th

BACKGROUND: This study reinvestigated the recent finding that females – but not males – die in traffic accidents on Friday the 13th more often than on other Fridays (Näyhä S: Traffic deaths and superstition on Friday the 13th. Am J Psychiatry 2002, 159: 2110–2111). The current study used matched setting and injury accident data base that is more numerous than fatality data. If such an effect would be caused by impaired psychic and psychomotor functioning due to more frequent anxiety among women, it should also appear in injury crashes. METHODS: We used the national Finnish road accident database for 1989–2002. To control seasonal variation, 21 Fridays the 13th were compared in a matched design to previous and following Fridays, excluding all holidays, on number of accidents, male/female responsibility for accidents, and the number of dead, injured and overall number of active participants (drivers, pedestrians and bicyclists) as a consequence of the accident. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in any examined aspect of road injury accidents among the three Fridays, either in females or males. Women were not overrepresented in crashes that occurred on Fridays 13th. CONCLUSION: There is no consistent evidence for females having more road traffic crashes on Fridays the 13th, based on deaths or road accident statistics. However, this does not imply a non-existent effect of superstition related anxiety on accident risk as no exposure-to-risk data are available. People who are anxious of "Black Friday" may stay home, or at least avoid driving a car

The HST/ACS Coma Cluster Survey: I - Survey Objectives and Design

We describe the HST ACS Coma cluster Treasury survey, a deep two-passband imaging survey of one of the nearest rich clusters of galaxies, the Coma cluster (Abell 1656). The survey was designed to cover an area of 740 square arcmin in regions of different density of both galaxies and intergalactic medium within the cluster. The ACS failure of January 27th 2007 leaves the survey 28% complete, with 21 ACS pointings (230 square arcmin) complete, and partial data for a further 4 pointings (44 square arcmin). Predicted survey depth for 10 sigma detections for optimal photometry of point sources is g' = 27.6 in the F475W filter, and IC=26.8 mag in F814 (AB magnitudes). Initial simulations with artificially injected point sources show 90% recovered at magnitude limits of g' = 27.55 and IC = 26.65. For extended sources, the predicted 10 sigma limits for a 1 square arcsecond region are g' = 25.8 mag/sq. arcsec and IC = 25.0 mag/sq. arcsec. We highlight several motivating science goals of the survey, including study of the faint end of the cluster galaxy luminosity function, structural parameters of dwarf galaxies, stellar populations and their effect on colors and color gradients, evolution of morphological components in a dense environment, the nature of ultra compact dwarf galaxies, and globular cluster populations of cluster galaxies of a range of luminosities and types. This survey will also provide a local rich cluster benchmark for various well known global scaling relations and explore new relations pertaining to the nuclear properties of galaxies

The HST/ACS Coma Cluster Survey. II. Data Description and Source Catalogs

The Coma cluster was the target of a HST-ACS Treasury program designed for deep imaging in the F475W and F814W passbands. Although our survey was interrupted by the ACS instrument failure in 2007, the partially completed survey still covers ~50% of the core high-density region in Coma. Observations were performed for 25 fields that extend over a wide range of cluster-centric radii (~1.75 Mpc) with a total coverage area of 274 arcmin^2. The majority of the fields are located near the core region of Coma (19/25 pointings) with six additional fields in the south-west region of the cluster. In this paper we present reprocessed images and SExtractor source catalogs for our survey fields, including a detailed description of the methodology used for object detection and photometry, the subtraction of bright galaxies to measure faint underlying objects, and the use of simulations to assess the photometric accuracy and completeness of our catalogs. We also use simulations to perform aperture corrections for the SExtractor Kron magnitudes based only on the measured source flux and half-light radius. We have performed photometry for ~73,000 unique objects; one-half of our detections are brighter than the 10-sigma point-source detection limit at F814W=25.8 mag (AB). The slight majority of objects (60%) are unresolved or only marginally resolved by ACS. We estimate that Coma members are 5-10% of all source detections, which consist of a large population of unresolved objects (primarily GCs but also UCDs) and a wide variety of extended galaxies from a cD galaxy to dwarf LSB galaxies. The red sequence of Coma member galaxies has a constant slope and dispersion across 9 magnitudes (-21<M_F814W<-13). The initial data release for the HST-ACS Coma Treasury program was made available to the public in 2008 August. The images and catalogs described in this study relate to our second data release

The legal framework for financial advertising:curbing behavioural exploitation

Policy makers and behavioural finance scholars express growing concern that marketing practices by financial institutions exploit retail investors’ behavioural biases. Investor protection regulation should thus address these marketing practices and include mechanisms curbing behavioural exploitation. That raises the question whether the marketing communications regime of the new Markets in Financial Instruments Directive can live up to this demand. This article develops a regulatory model that integrates behavioural finance insights into the new marketing communications regime. It then determines how regulatory authorities can apply this model when they interpret and apply specific regulatory requirements. It demonstrates how a regulatory authority or a court can translate empirical behavioural finance research findings into legal arguments when assessing whether marketing practices can significantly distort a model investor’s decision-making process. The article further establishes that the detailed requirements imposed on investment firms by the new Markets in Financial Instruments Directive are necessary in order to protect investors from behavioural exploitation. Finally, the article submits policy proposals that aim to protect investors more effectively from behavioural exploitation

Forecasting Cryptocurrency Value by Sentiment Analysis: An HPC-Oriented Survey of the State-of-the-Art in the Cloud Era

This chapter surveys the state-of-the-art in forecasting cryptocurrency value by Sentiment Analysis. Key compounding perspectives of current challenges are addressed, including blockchains, data collection, annotation, and filtering, and sentiment analysis metrics using data streams and cloud platforms. We have explored the domain based on this problem-solving metric perspective, i.e., as technical analysis, forecasting, and estimation using a standardized ledger-based technology. The envisioned tools based on forecasting are then suggested, i.e., ranking Initial Coin Offering (ICO) values for incoming cryptocurrencies, trading strategies employing the new Sentiment Analysis metrics, and risk aversion in cryptocurrencies trading through a multi-objective portfolio selection. Our perspective is rationalized on the perspective on elastic demand of computational resources for cloud infrastructures

Efficiency in the forward exchange market - an application of co-integration - reply

In this issue of the Economic and Social Review, Leddin comments on my recent (1988) paper which examined co-integration as a technique for analysing the efficiency of the forward exchange market. This paper addresses a small number of the interesting points raised in this Comment